Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus outbreak in a pediatric intensive care unit: report of successful interventions for control and prevention

The objective of this study is to retrospectively report the results of interventions for controlling a vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) outbreak in a tertiary-care pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of a University Hospital. After identification of the outbreak, interventions were made at the following levels: patient care, microbiological surveillance, and medical and nursing staff training. Data were collected from computer-based databases and from the electronic prescription system. Vancomycin use progressively increased after March 2008, peaking in August 2009. Five cases of VRE infection were identified, with 3 deaths. After the interventions, we noted a significant reduction in vancomycin prescription and use (75% reduction), and the last case of VRE infection was identified 4 months later. The survivors remained colonized until hospital discharge. After interventions there was a transient increase in PICU length-of-stay and mortality. Since then, the use of vancomycin has remained relatively constant and strict, no other cases of VRE infection or colonization have been identified and length-of-stay and mortality returned to baseline. In conclusion, we showed that a bundle intervention aiming at a strict control of vancomycin use and full compliance with the Hospital Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee guidelines, along with contact precautions and hand-hygiene promotion, can be effective in reducing vancomycin use and the emergence and spread of vancomycin-resistant bacteria in a tertiary-care PICU.

Low Sensitivity of NS1 Protein Tests Evidenced during a Dengue Type 2 Virus Outbreak in Santos, Brazil, in 2010

In 2010, a large outbreak of dengue occurred in Santos, Brazil. The detection of the NS1 antigen was used for diagnosis in addition to the detection of IgG, IgM, and RNA. A large number of NS1 false-negative results were obtained. A total of 379 RNA-positive samples were selected for thorough evaluation. NS1 was reactive in 37.7% of cases. Most of the cases were characterized as a secondary infection by dengue 2 virus. Sequencing of NS1 positive and negative isolates did not reveal any mutation that could justify the diagnostic failure. Use of existing NS1 tests in the Brazilian population may present a low negative predictive value, and they should be used with caution, preferentially after performing a validation with samples freshly obtained during the ongoing epidemic.

Bacillus cereus infection outbreak in captive psittacines

This study reports an uncommon epizootic outbreak of Bacillus cereus that caused the sudden death of 12 psittacines belonging to the species Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus (1 individual), Diopsittaca nobilis (1 individual), Ara severe (1 individual) and Ara ararauna (9 individuals) in a Brazilian zoo. Post-mortem examination of the animals reveled extensive areas of lung hemorrhage, hepatic congestion, hemorrhagic enteritis and cardiac congestion. Histopathological examination of the organs showed the presence of multiple foci of vegetative cells of Gram-positive bacilli associated with discrete and moderate mononuclear inflammatory cell infiltrate. Seventeen B. cereus strains isolated from blood and sterile organs of nine A. ararauna were analyzed in order to investigate the genetic diversity (assessed by Rep-PCR) and toxigenic profiles (presence of hblA, hblC and hblD; nheA, nheB and nheC as well as cytK, ces and entFM genes) of such strains. Amplification of genomic DNA by Rep-PCR of B. cereus strains generated two closely related profiles (Rep-PCR types A and B) with three bands of difference. All strains were classified as belonging to the toxigenic profile I which contained HBL and NHE gene complexes, entFM and cytK genes. Altogether, microbiological and histopathological findings and the evidence provided by the success of the antibiotic prophylaxis, corroborate that B. cereus was the causative agent of the infection that killed the birds. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic analysis of rubella virus strains during an outbreak in Sao Paulo, 2007-2008

Rubella virus (RV) is an important human pathogen that causes rubella, an acute contagious disease. It also causes severe birth defects collectively known as congenital rubella syndrome when infection occurs during the first trimester of pregnancy. Here, we present the phylogenetic analysis of RV that circulated in Sao Paulo during the 20072008 outbreak. Samples collected from patients diagnosed with rubella were isolated in cell culture and sequenced. RV RNA was obtained from samples or RV-infected cell cultures and amplified by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Sequences were assigned to genotypes by phylogenetic analysis using RV reference sequences. Seventeen sequences were analyzed, and three genotypes were identified: 1a, 1G, and 2B. Genotypes 1a and 1G, which were isolated in 2007, were responsible for sporadic rubella cases in Sao Paulo. Thereafter, in late 2007, the epidemiological conditions changed, resulting in a large RV outbreak with the clear dominance of genotype 2B. The results of this study provide new approaches for monitoring the progress of elimination of rubella from Sao Paulo, Brazil. J. Med. Virol. 84:16661671, 2012. (c) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

First report of Trypanosoma vivax outbreak in dairy cattle in Sao Paulo state, Brazil

This is the first description of a trypanosoma vivax outbreak in the state of Sao Paulo (municipality of Lins). Fever, jaundice, decreased milk production, weight loss, profuse diarrhea, abortion, anemia, leukocytosis and hyperfibrinogenemia were observed in the affected animals. Thirty-one cows and calves died out of a total of 1080 in the herd. Three cows showed neurological symptoms like dysmetria, ataxia, muscle weakness, ptyalism, lymph node enlargement and submandibular edema. Flagellated hemoparasites were observed in blood smears. The species was diagnosed as T vivax by means of PCR. This T vivax strain showed resistance to diaminazene aceturate and the infection spread quickly at the herd. From the ELISA test, 599 serum samples (98.36%) were positive for anti-T. vivax IgG antibodies. This outbreak occurred during a very dry period, which indicates that other factors were involved in the outbreak, such as absence of tabanids and large populations of Haematobia irritans and Stomoxys calcitrans. The increases in these populations may have been due to the use of biosolid waste from sugar and ethanol plants in the sugarcane plantations surrounding the dairy farm.

Nosocomial outbreak of Pantoea agglomerans bacteraemia associated with contaminated anticoagulant citrate dextrose solution: new name, old bug?

We describe an outbreak investigation of Pantoea agglomerans bacteraemia associated with anticoagulant citrate-dextrose 46% (ACD) solution prepared in-house. A healthy man presented with septic shock during plasmapheresis for granulocyte donation. The solution used for priming and blood samples were sent for culture. Identification of the isolate to species level was performed by gyrB sequencing. Typing was performed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). In total, eight cases were identified during a three-week period. P. agglomerans was also cultured from six ACD solution bags. Isolates from patients and ACD bags were identical by PFGE. All isolates were susceptible to ampicillin, cephazolin, gentamicin, ciprofloxacin, cefepime and imipenem. (C) 2011 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CASE-CONTROL STUDY OF AN OUTBREAK OF ACUTE TOXOPLASMOSIS IN AN INDUSTRIAL PLANT IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL

Foodborne diseases represent operational risks in industrial restaurants. We described an outbreak of nine clustered cases of acute illness resembling acute toxoplasmosis in an industrial plant with 2300 employees. These patients and another 36 similar asymptomatic employees were diagnosed with anti-T. gondii IgG titer and avidity by ELISA. We excluded 14 patients based on high IgG avidity and chronic toxoplasmosis: 13 from controls and one from acute disease other than T. gondii infection. We also identified another three asymptomatic employees with T.gondii acute infection and also anti-T. gondii IgM positive as remaining acute cases. Case control study was conducted by interview in 11 acute infections and 20 negative controls. The ingestion of green vegetables, but not meat or water, was observed to be associated with the incidence of acute disease. These data reinforce the importance of sanitation control in industrial restaurants and also demonstrate the need for improvement in quality control regarding vegetables at risk for T. gondii oocyst contamination. We emphasized the accurate diagnosis of indexed cases and the detection of asymptomatic infections to determine the extent of the toxoplasmosis outbreak.

Case-control study of an outbreak of acute toxoplasmosis in an industrial plant in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Foodborne diseases represent operational risks in industrial restaurants. We described an outbreak of nine clustered cases of acute illness resembling acute toxoplasmosis in an industrial plant with 2300 employees. These patients and another 36 similar asymptomatic employees were diagnosed with anti-T. gondii IgG titer and avidity by ELISA. We excluded 14 patients based on high IgG avidity and chronic toxoplasmosis: 13 from controls and one from acute disease other than T. gondii infection. We also identified another three asymptomatic employees with T.gondii acute infection and also anti-T. gondii IgM positive as remaining acute cases. Case control study was conducted by interview in 11 acute infections and 20 negative controls. The ingestion of green vegetables, but not meat or water, was observed to be associated with the incidence of acute disease. These data reinforce the importance of sanitation control in industrial restaurants and also demonstrate the need for improvement in quality control regarding vegetables at risk for T. gondii oocyst contamination. We emphasized the accurate diagnosis of indexed cases and the detection of asymptomatic infections to determine the extent of the toxoplasmosis outbreak.

First report of Trypanosoma vivax outbreak in dairy cattle in São Paulo state, Brazil

This is the first description of a Trypanosoma vivax outbreak in the state of São Paulo (municipality of Lins). Fever, jaundice, decreased milk production, weight loss, profuse diarrhea, abortion, anemia, leukocytosis and hyperfibrinogenemia were observed in the affected animals. Thirty-one cows and calves died out of a total of 1080 in the herd. Three cows showed neurological symptoms like dysmetria, ataxia, muscle weakness, ptyalism, lymph node enlargement and submandibular edema. Flagellated hemoparasites were observed in blood smears. The species was diagnosed as T. vivax by means of PCR. This T.vivax strain showed resistance to diaminazene aceturate and the infection spread quickly at the herd. From the ELISA test, 599 serum samples (98.36%) were positive for anti-T.vivax IgG antibodies. This outbreak occurred during a very dry period, which indicates that other factors were involved in the outbreak, such as absence of tabanids and large populations of Haematobia irritans and Stomoxys calcitrans. The increases in these populations may have been due to the use of biosolid waste from sugar and ethanol plants in the sugarcane plantations surrounding the dairy farm.

Dangerous waters: outbreak of eye lesions caused by fresh water sponge spicules

Purpose To describe an extremely uncommon outbreak of eye lesions in a specific area of the Brazilian Amazonia. Methods Prospective noncomparative case series. Fifty-nine patients who developed eye lesions after swimming in the Araguaia river of Tocantins state in Brazil were examined. A team of ophthalmologists equipped with a slit-lamp, gonioscopic lenses, and indirect ophthalmoscopy performed full eye examination. Analysis of the flora and fauna of the river water was undertaken by a group of experts. Results and Conclusions Eighty-three eyes were affected. The most common lesions were corneal opacities seen in 34 eyes and conjunctival nodules diagnosed in 12 eyes. Severe visual acuity loss was detected in seven children with unilateral anterior chamber lesions. Spicules of the sponge species Drulia uruguayensis and Drulia ctenosclera were found inside three blind eyes that have been enucleated for diagnostic purposes. All eye lesions could be attributed to an outbreak of foreign bodies from fresh water sponges. Organic enrichment of the water resulting from the absence of sanitation probably was the key factor, which initiated a cycle of ecological imbalance that provoked human disease.

Cinema = cavação: Cendroswald produções cinematográficas

Em 1924, Blaise Cendrars, em meio a um projeto ambicioso de realização de um “filme de propaganda sobre o Brasil”, em parceria com Oswald de Andrade, teve a oportunidade de testemunhar a eclosão da Revolução de 1924, reprimida com violência pelo governo federal. A experiência marcou a sua imaginação e sepultou os planos de realizar um filme no Brasil, baseado em episódios da história paulista. Um dos elementos que aproximaram Oswald e Cendrars foi o desejo comum de se tornarem cineastas-cavadores

Detection of dengue virus in sera of Brazilian blood donors

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most important arboviral disease in the world. Dengue viruses (DENVs) have produced huge outbreaks in Brazil in the past 25 years with more than 5 million reported cases. During these epidemics, asymptomatic individuals infected with DENV could donate blood and serve as a source of virus dissemination in the community. Here, we studied the circulation of DENV in healthy individuals during an epidemic outbreak. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The study included 500 serum samples from healthy blood donors collected at the Hemotherapy Center of Ribeirao Preto, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. The presence of DENV RNA in the serum samples was screened by real-time reverse transcriptionpolymerase chain reaction (PCR). The virus serotype was determined by a heminested PCR procedure. A partial fragment of the NS5 gene sequence was used for phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: DENV RNA was detected in the serum sample of 2 of 500 (0.4%) individuals. Both of them were infected with DENV-3 Genotype III, a virus that has been circulating in Brazil in the past decade. CONCLUSION: Individuals with asymptomatic DENV infection can be blood donors and serve as a source of virus dissemination in the community. Further studies are needed to determine the risk of recipient infection by DENV as a result of transfusion in Brazil, especially during epidemic periods.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Molecular epidemiology of the SH (small hydrophobic) gene of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV), over 2 consecutive years

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) strains were isolated from nasopharyngeal aspirates collected from 965 children between 2004 and 2005, yielding 424 positive samples. We sequenced the small hydrophobic protein (SH) gene of 117 strains and compared them with other viruses identified worldwide. Phylogenetic analysis showed a low genetic variability among the isolates but allowed us to classify the viruses into different genotypes for both groups, HRSVA and HRSVB. It is also shown that the novel BA-like genotype was well segregated from the others, indicating that the mutations are not limited to the G gene. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.